A Clinton win will re-establish current market trends in equities and bonds as well as monetary policy, with a likely rate hike in December. We have a bias towards a slightly higher U.S. dollar against non-cyclical currencies (i.e. Euro) but see the greenback underperforming cyclical currencies such as emerging markets. We expect some fiscal policy and a continued leading role of the U.S. in world affairs, albeit a declining one.
Jean-Philippe Bry's blog
Political turmoil in the U.K. continues as predicted in a previous blog post. Until the Conservatives choose a new leader in early September, who is going to lead the Brexit negotiations and with what mandate and authority? It is at this time that we would expect Article 50 to be invoked, starting the formal negotiations on Britain’s exit. Meanwhile, the labour party may also be choosing a new leader.
We are one week from the Brexit vote and since writing on the subject two weeks ago, the “leave” campaign has gained momentum and appears to be ahead of the “remain” camp in most opinion polls. The accuracy of these polls is suspect and as such, the best pollsters are left saying the outcome on June 23 is a coin toss.
The U.K. Referendum, on whether to stay in the European Union (EU), vote will occur on June 23.
Market Impact: Greater long term uncertainty irrespective of the result, heightened volatility and higher risk premiums.