Jean-Philippe Bry's blog
Veuillez rejoindre Jean Philippe Bry, Stratège Globale chez Signature, lorsqu’il présente une mise à jour sur le fond Revenu et Croissance Mondial Signature.
Mise à jour du fond Revenu et Croissance Mondial Signature pour l’automne 2018
Veuillez rejoindre Jean Philippe Bry, Stratège Globale chez Signature, lorsqu’il présente une mise à jour sur les marches globaux et ce que nous anticipions dans les mois qui suivent.
Mise à jour sur nos perspectives Macro pour l’automne 2018
The market is fretting over a possible Le Pen victory in France’s presidential elections scheduled in April and May 2017. Markets are nervous and sovereign spreads on French government bonds recently reached a 4-year high (see graph below). So what are the risks? Should investors be looking at this as an opportunity or an existential risk to not only France but the future of the Eurozone?
French government bond yields less German government bond yields
Global markets continue to grind higher thanks to an improving global economy and easy financial conditions. Many believe that the Trump election is the underlying reasons for the new highs in U.S. stock markets, and certainly the proposed fiscal policies and deregulation designed to stimulate the economy are creating more confidence in the business and finance communities. Nevertheless it is also clear that Trump is the beneficiary of a good U.S.
A Clinton win will re-establish current market trends in equities and bonds as well as monetary policy, with a likely rate hike in December. We have a bias towards a slightly higher U.S. dollar against non-cyclical currencies (i.e. Euro) but see the greenback underperforming cyclical currencies such as emerging markets. We expect some fiscal policy and a continued leading role of the U.S. in world affairs, albeit a declining one.
Political turmoil in the U.K. continues as predicted in a previous blog post. Until the Conservatives choose a new leader in early September, who is going to lead the Brexit negotiations and with what mandate and authority? It is at this time that we would expect Article 50 to be invoked, starting the formal negotiations on Britain’s exit. Meanwhile, the labour party may also be choosing a new leader.