We are one week from the Brexit vote and since writing on the subject two weeks ago, the “leave” campaign has gained momentum and appears to be ahead of the “remain” camp in most opinion polls. The accuracy of these polls is suspect and as such, the best pollsters are left saying the outcome on June 23 is a coin toss.
What we do know...read more
The U.K. Referendum, on whether to stay in the European Union (EU), vote will occur on June 23.
Market Impact: Greater long term uncertainty irrespective of the result, heightened volatility and higher risk premiums.
The “remain” campaigners are painting a dire economic picture if Britain leaves the EU while the...read more
The first quarter of 2016 has been marked by additional monetary easing by major central banks venturing further into negative interest rates and direct credit easing in response to a weakening global economy. It is a symptom of the ongoing global debt default that to support the current market valuations (and avoid a crisis of confidence),...read more
Developing currency management strategies, and executing on them, is an integrated and multipart process. Market positioning, capital flows, interest rates, geopolitical risks, economic fundamentals, technical analysis (and the list goes on), collectively contribute to currency direction. Experienced currency managers tend to increase their...read more
Within the first few weeks of 2016 the Canadian dollar has dished out pain and joy in abundance. The irony is that within a single month both bulls and bears experienced these emotions in extremes. The currency first fell dramatically in the early part of January only to fully reverse by early February.
How does one manage these risks...read more
There's an old joke in economics that goes: "The questions never change, but the answers always do". The unconventional answers that central bankers have developed over time to solve the lack of inflation (or in some cases deflation) are Quantitative Easing (QE) and Zero/Negative Interest Rate Policy (...read more
What is Signature Tactical Bond Pool?
The new Signature Tactical Bond Pool is a globally diversified fixed-income portfolio that has the flexibility to respond tactically to shifting market conditions and ability to find the best opportunities to add risk-adjusted alpha. Our goal is to provide better returns than the...read more
Fixed income risk management – the most important lesson
As we wind down our active positions in 2015, it is important to reflect upon our performance, revisit our principles, plan for 2016 and position the portfolios accordingly for the coming year.
The year 2015 was a difficult one for fixed income active...read more
Recently it was announced that the Quebec government will be providing Bombardier with much needed new capital. The struggling CSeries commercial jet program will be moved into a joint venture (JV) and the Quebec government will contribute $1 billion into this JV in exchange for a 49.5% interest in the company. This cash contribution will be...read more
Valeant Pharmaceuticals comes close with a business model based on serial acquisitions and a lack of clarity on true underlying sales trends. With sales growth seemingly dependent on drug price increases and unique distribution relationships, and adjusted EPS bolstered by draconian cost cutting, the company’s real margins and cash flows and the...read more