The market is fretting over a possible Le Pen victory in France’s presidential elections scheduled in April and May 2017. Markets are nervous and sovereign spreads on French government bonds recently reached a 4-year high (see graph below). So what are the risks? Should investors be looking at this as an opportunity or an existential risk to...read more
Highlights from the Global Fixed Income Webcast
On February 16, 2017, we hosted a webcast on the fixed income outlook, positioning and performance.
Here are the highlights:
Looking at the global markets from a cyclical lensThe consensus is focused on fiscal policy and the new U.S... read more
Global markets continue to grind higher thanks to an improving global economy and easy financial conditions. Many believe that the Trump election is the underlying reasons for the new highs in U.S. stock markets, and certainly the proposed fiscal policies and deregulation designed to stimulate the economy are creating...read more
A look back on 2016
Last year was a volatile environment for both safe haven and risk assets. Deflation and risk-off dominated the first half damaging credit markets that led to new lower lows in global sovereign bond yields. Since mid-summer, indicators of U.S. and global growth and inflation have been in an uptrend...read more
In the summer of 2016, Signature argued that markets were approaching a regime change. A multi-year deflationary impulse was fading and a reflationary turn was at hand. Commodity prices had stabilized and growth dynamics were improving along with financial conditions in the banking sector and credit markets. Populist political risks,...read more
Global industrial production has been in a cyclical rebound since the summer after more than a year of severe (but non-recessionary) slowdown which took the U.S. and global growth to multi-year lows. Inflation has also been in a cyclical upswing, especially in the United States...read more
In August, Signature postulated that markets were at a moment of regime change from deflation to reflation. In fact we had discussed, over the preceding nine months, the need for asset allocators to prepare to tack away from the consensus deflationary scenario. The changing policy mix held the key to timing. If fiscal policy replaced bond...read more
There is much to read into the changing global political landscape from the surprise Trump election win. Eric Bushell's commentary/blog post from November 9 “And Now For Something Completely Different” articulated our thoughts on the long-term economic impact of the increasing populism, as demonstrated by the Trump victory.
In the...read more
Last night’s election results remind me of the 1971 Monty Python album “And Now for Something Completely Different.” Donald Trump is president-elect of the United States.
The good news is that we have a clear winner with a clear mandate to “Make America Great Again.” Trump is the polar opposite candidate to President Obama. His election...read more
A Clinton win will re-establish current market trends in equities and bonds as well as monetary policy, with a likely rate hike in December. We have a bias towards a slightly higher U.S. dollar against non-cyclical currencies (i.e. Euro) but see the greenback underperforming cyclical currencies such as emerging markets. We...read more