Standard & Poor (S&P) recently downgraded Brazil’s credit rating to non-investment grade and maintained a negative outlook, signaling that further cuts are possible. Once a darling of emerging markets, Brazil is now facing a painful and possibly prolonged recession, and is caught between policy inaction and political turmoil – both of...read more
Global risk-off events are becoming an annual ritual. In the past five years it has been triggered by European debt concerns (2011 - 2012), taper tantrum (2013), the big commodity correction (2014) or fear over growth in China (2015). Weaved into these events were U.S. political and policy uncertainties.
Do you remember the worries...read more
China’s monetary authority took the markets by surprise last week, allowing its onshore currency (CNY) to weaken roughly 3% against the U.S. dollar. Western markets, media and certain U.S. congressional officials were quick to cry foul, suggesting China was devaluing its currency to gain an edge – a deliberate act of currency war. In fairness...read more
The global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008 resulted in major deficit funding by governments around the world as the public sector stepped in to counter the shrinkage of private balance sheets and credit demand. At the same time central banks, through conventional and unconventional policies, kept interest...read more
In January 2015, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut the overnight rate from 1% to 0.75% in a move that came as a surprise to some market participants. This led to a substantial rally in the Canadian bond market to the extent that, at some point, the pricing in the front-end of the Canadian yield curve was implying substantial probability of another...read more
The Alberta NDP campaigned during the recent provincial election on several issues that are not particularly constructive for the oilpatch. A few of the party’s key platform items that directly affect energy companies include:an increase in the corporate tax rate from 10 to 12% a review of the current royalty system. The NDP has said, “... read more
I recently attended the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) annual meeting in Washington, where advances in the development of drugs for debilitating diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Multiple Sclerosis (MS) were presented. Although still in the early- to middle-innings of development, there are encouraging signs of hope from a...read more
Reading and writing about 2015’s outlook is a ritual for most market participants. Most banks and buy side firms publish their upcoming year’s outlook in December with forecasts on bond yields, equity returns, and a general macro outlook. Some publish the list of their top 10 or 20 risks for next year. In 2014, the major calls at the beginning...read more
It’s that time of year again. With the New Year’s Eve parties out of the way and a fresh start to the year, we attended the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) held in Las Vegas from January 6-9. 2015 was a record year for CES with over 170,000 attendees from around the world.
The focus for CES 2015 was all about the Internet of Things (IOT...read more
With a total market capitalization of USD $3.9 trillion, China's A-share market ranks only behind the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and Japanese Stock Exchange. Despite its size, the A-share market remains largely off limits to foreign investors. But change is coming and the introduction of a Mutual Market Access (MMA) program is an...read more