Eric Bushell's blog

Policy Responses Bridge the Pandemic Crisis

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The monetary and fiscal policy response to the epidemic globally has been unusually quick and effective. In two weeks, core response elements relating to economic and financial challenges have been put in place to prevent the health crisis from morphing into a broader crisis. Effective health policy and innovation will be needed, however, before our working lives, economies and markets can normalize.

COVID-19: Public Health Strategies and the Capital Markets

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In a follow-up note to our recent pieces on the COVID-19 outbreak, Signature Coronavirus Commentary - February 28, 2020 and Coronavirus: Separating the disease from the market reaction - March 2, 2020, we wanted to outline our thoughts on the developing public health responses to COVID-19 and at a high level, the potential implications to the economy and the markets.

Signature Coronavirus Commentary

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Market positioning in January was extended. The combination of the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the “Fed”) 75 bps cuts in the summer and a banking system liquidity surge fueled by the Fed’s $60 billion/month U.S. Treasury bill purchase program resulted in a textbook risk melt up. Exhibit A was that credit spreads tightened to post-Lehman lows. Exhibit B was the large-cap technology sector price surge. Levered investment strategies and systematic investors were programmatically swept into the momentum-driven upswing. Paranoid active managers joined in out of fear of passive annihilation.

Back to School Video Series 2019

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As summer wraps up and students head back to school, Signature Global Asset Management is pleased to offer its next educational series. Back to School is a collection of videos that provide current views on the markets and key mandates. Watch these videos to gain valuable global insights from Signature's portfolio management team.

A conversation with Eric Bushell and Paul Schulte

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I wanted to share with you a lively discussion I had with Paul Schulte during the 2017 CI Leadership Forum in Palm Springs that focuses on how banks drive market cycles, the emergence of China 2.0, and the rise of fintech. Paul is the founder and editor of the Hong Kong–based research company Schulte Research and has over 27 years of experience working in Asian financial markets.

10 years after the start of the crisis, central banks shift gears

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June 19 marked the 10-year anniversary of the start of the financial crisis in the U.S.  One week later on June 27, as Italy finalized the recapitalization of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, global bond yields began to rise in a synchronized fashion by 25–50 basis points (see chart). Despite inflation levels that remained below stated targets, central banks committed themselves to pressing ahead with an exit from the emergency monetary policies of the crisis period. A milestone in the crisis may have been reached. We had been waiting for European bank recapitalizations since 2009!

Regime Change 2.0

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In the summer of 2016, Signature argued that markets were approaching a regime change.  A multi-year deflationary impulse was fading and a reflationary turn was at hand. Commodity prices had stabilized and growth dynamics were improving along with financial conditions in the banking sector and credit markets. Populist political risks, exemplified by Brexit in late June, drove politicians worldwide to abandon austerity in favour of fiscal spending. Monetary policy alone was out of bullets but coupled with fiscal action wo

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