Alexandra Gorewicz's blog

Inflation is Possible, Deflation is Probable

Alexandra Gorewicz's picture
In these still early and unprecedent days, forecasting the near-term social and economic impact of the pandemic feels like a tall order; attempting to look out one year or beyond feels like a Magic 8-Ball consultation: Will we have more answers than questions in 2021? “Cannot predict now.” Will economic growth rebound in 2021? “Ask again later.” Will the price of goods and services be higher or lower in 2021? “Yes – definitely.”

Signature’s Latest Rates View: A Global Pandemic Requires A Global Response

Alexandra Gorewicz's picture
This is the first global consumer shock (especially for U.S. and Chinese consumers) since the Great Financial Recession (GFR) of 2008-2009, so the fear gripping capital markets is completely justified because the consumer has propped up the post-GFR global economic recovery. In addition, post-GFR, business investment has been quite weak (outside of the energy sector and maybe big data investments) with a lot of debt issuance used to buy back stock, a non-productive use of capital.

PART ONE – Monetary Policy: Quantitative Easing and the Race to the Bottom, Four Years On

Alexandra Gorewicz's picture
“Be careful what you wish for, you may receive it.” Over the last several months, it feels as if all central bankers have used every speaking opportunity to mention that their monetary policies, including bond purchases (quantitative easing or QE) and negative interest rates (NIRP), have reached their limits. This is an extremely important development, because it means that today’s monetary policies are no longer as effective as they once were.

Signature fixed income 2017 year-end review: Beware the drunkards

Alexandra Gorewicz's picture
“Some use statistics as drunkards use lamp-posts – for support rather than illumination.” As 2017 comes to an end, it is only appropriate that we reflect on positioning and performance across our fixed income strategies and set the course for what is shaping up to be a challenging 2018.

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