February 9, 2017

Global markets continue to grind higher thanks to an improving global economy and easy financial conditions. Many believe that the Trump election is the underlying reasons for the new highs in U.S. stock markets, and certainly the proposed fiscal policies and deregulation designed to stimulate the economy are creating...

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January 30, 2017

A look back on 2016

Last year was a volatile environment for both safe haven and risk assets. Deflation and risk-off dominated the first half damaging credit markets that led to new lower lows in global sovereign bond yields. Since mid-summer, indicators of U.S. and global growth and inflation have been in an uptrend...

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January 16, 2017

In the summer of 2016, Signature argued that markets were approaching a regime change.  A multi-year deflationary impulse was fading and a reflationary turn was at hand. Commodity prices had stabilized and growth dynamics were improving along with financial conditions in the banking sector and credit markets. Populist political risks,...

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December 8, 2016

Background

Global industrial production has been in a cyclical rebound since the summer after more than a year of severe (but non-recessionary) slowdown which took the U.S. and global growth to multi-year lows. Inflation has also been in a cyclical upswing, especially in the United States...

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November 25, 2016

In August, Signature postulated that markets were at a moment of regime change from deflation to reflation. In fact we had discussed, over the preceding nine months, the need for asset allocators to prepare to tack away from the consensus deflationary scenario. The changing policy mix held the key to timing. If fiscal policy replaced bond...

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