Global industrial production has been in a cyclical rebound since the summer after more than a year of severe (but non-recessionary) slowdown which took the U.S. and global growth to multi-year lows. Inflation has also been in a cyclical upswing, especially in the United States...read more
In August, Signature postulated that markets were at a moment of regime change from deflation to reflation. In fact we had discussed, over the preceding nine months, the need for asset allocators to prepare to tack away from the consensus deflationary scenario. The changing policy mix held the key to timing. If fiscal policy replaced bond...read more
There is much to read into the changing global political landscape from the surprise Trump election win. Eric Bushell's commentary/blog post from November 9 “And Now For Something Completely Different” articulated our thoughts on the long-term economic impact of the increasing populism, as demonstrated by the Trump victory.
In the...read more
Last night’s election results remind me of the 1971 Monty Python album “And Now for Something Completely Different.” Donald Trump is president-elect of the United States.
The good news is that we have a clear winner with a clear mandate to “Make America Great Again.” Trump is the polar opposite candidate to President Obama. His election...read more
A Clinton win will re-establish current market trends in equities and bonds as well as monetary policy, with a likely rate hike in December. We have a bias towards a slightly higher U.S. dollar against non-cyclical currencies (i.e. Euro) but see the greenback underperforming cyclical currencies such as emerging markets. We...read more