Political turmoil in the U.K. continues as predicted in a previous blog post. Until the Conservatives choose a new leader in early September, who is going to lead the Brexit negotiations and with what mandate and authority? It is at this time that we would expect Article 50 to be invoked, starting the formal negotiations on Britain’s exit. ...read more
We are one week from the Brexit vote and since writing on the subject two weeks ago, the “leave” campaign has gained momentum and appears to be ahead of the “remain” camp in most opinion polls. The accuracy of these polls is suspect and as such, the best pollsters are left saying the outcome on June 23 is a coin toss.
What we do know...read more
The U.K. Referendum, on whether to stay in the European Union (EU), vote will occur on June 23.
Market Impact: Greater long term uncertainty irrespective of the result, heightened volatility and higher risk premiums.
The “remain” campaigners are painting a dire economic picture if Britain leaves the EU while the...read more
The first quarter of 2016 has been marked by additional monetary easing by major central banks venturing further into negative interest rates and direct credit easing in response to a weakening global economy. It is a symptom of the ongoing global debt default that to support the current market valuations (and avoid a crisis of confidence),...read more
Developing currency management strategies, and executing on them, is an integrated and multipart process. Market positioning, capital flows, interest rates, geopolitical risks, economic fundamentals, technical analysis (and the list goes on), collectively contribute to currency direction. Experienced currency managers tend to increase their...read more