Greg Dean's blog
Dear fellow Fundholders,
Wow! What a change in sentiment we have seen over the last 12 months around stocks. At this time last year, we were inverting the colours of our Bloomberg terminals for companies on our watch list, so that when stocks were down they showed in GREEN! Then, the popular debate was whether the U.S. and rest of world were entering a recession and whether China would devalue its currency.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, anyone trying to make sense of this post-election rotation out of secular growth and fixed income and into cyclical and financial stocks can look no further than the 10-year bond in the U.S. While an argument can definitely be made that this has been a big move in a short period of time, I think it’s also worth appreciating the other side which is we are still at levels below 2014!
Bob, Brandon, Steve and I were in Miami last week for CI’s annual Leadership Forum giving us the opportunity to spend time with many of the advisors in attendance. For those who weren’t able to join us this year, I wanted to summarize some of the key points from the session we presented on investing in Canada. In reference to investing in Canada, we frequently got asked the question: “Is now the time?” I understand why people are asking it, but in my opinion it fails to recognize how hard it is to time the market.
While we digest the information we obtained from our recent business trip to Japan, I wanted to share a few thoughts on global interest rates. Amidst the recent Fed “noise” around rates in the U.S., I thought I would highlight what I believe was a shocking milestone reached over in Europe a few weeks ago. Both Henkel (€50B euro market capitalization – seller of household products) and Sanofi (€90B euro market capitalization – pharma company) managed to convince a group of fixed-income investors to pay them for the right to borrow money.